Current Economic Crisis: Outlook
I'm not sure how regularly I'll update this page, but it includes some ideas about what is coming, or how we might influence what is coming.
Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh) interview: Grim, direct, well-documented analysis of ongoing credit crisis and deflation, and probabe and possible outcomes. Highly recommended, though certainly not easy listening (Sept 2010) (first 36 min of the file).
The Big Picture According to The Automatic Earth: A guide to TAE's online primers about the economic crisis and the near future (July 2010).
The Committee to Destroy the U.S.A.: Eric Jantzen (iTulip, Sept 2010) on bubble-era debt, U.S. budget deficits, the price of gold & silver, bailouts of the FIRE sector.... recommended.
Comments by Christina Romer at her farewell luncheon: The informal "exit statement" of the chair of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers: She had no idea how bad the economic collapse would be. She still doesn't understand exactly why it was so bad. The response to the collapse was inadequate. She doesn't have much of an idea about how to fix things. [or, What if the economics theories fundamental to your training and experience are useless?]
The Solution....is the Problem: Excellent, chilling, succinct summary of the debt challenge facing the U.S. in 2009 and beyond (PDF, Sprott Asset Management, mid-2009). Excellent, Sherlockian follow-up to in Dec 09: Is it all a Ponzi Scheme?
Dismantling the Temple: This clear, dispassionate article explains why we should abolish the Federal Reserve Bank, or at least greatly reduce its powers (Greider, The Nation, Aug 2009).
Extend and Pretend: The coming collapse of U.S. housing prices will devastate lenders —chiefly the U.S. government (and thus you and me) via Freddie Mac and Fannie May (TAE, July 2010).
How to Build a Lifeboat: Advice from TAE (Stoneleigh) about financial and lifetyle preparation for economic collapse.
Well-written, thoughtful analyses of economics and petroleum by Dave Cohen.
The Decline of the Empire—Now What? Grim, documented analysis (Nov 2009) of finance's stranglehold on the U.S., and the unavoidable outcome of their rotten-to-the-core actions.
The Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy: Debt, demographics, and U.S. medical costs.
Aftermath of the Great Recession, part 1 and part 2: Summaries and bleak projection of the global economy, Sept 2009; part 2 focuses on China (Peak Watch)
Gesture from the invisible hand: Fossil fuels, money, financial investments, and crisis (John Michael Greer, Nov 2009)
YOU Can Be a BILLIONAIRE Without Even Trying! Five Ways to Profit BIG from Global Collapse (Richard Heinberg, July 2010): Laugh or cry? Dark humor sometimes helps.
Onset of the age of rage? Simon Schama opinion piece in The Financial Times (May 2010).
The crisis of middle-class America: Provocative article in The Financial Times (July 2010).
Striking it Richer: Emmanuel Saez home page has the most-recent version of his clear analysis of wealth inequity in the U.S. (this one from July 2010, for data through 2008).
Middle class on the precipice: Even in 2006, Elizabeth Warren saw the writing on the wall for the U.S. middle class.
State of the Union's Finances: A Citizen's Guide: From the non-profit Peterson Foundation, headed by ex-U.S. Comptroller David Walker. Good graphs, readable text; March 2009, but data only through the end of 2008.
Death of the Soul of Capitalism: Twenty reasons American capitalism has lost its soul; bleak prospects for the future (from MarketWatch Oct 2009).
Mish's Unemployment Projections Through 2020: Mike Shedlock carefully accounts for factors that influence U.S. unemployment; even with generous assumptions, U-3 remains over 10% until 2015 (Nov 2009).
ProPublica's scorecard of state unemployment insurance funds: As of 1/31/10, 26 states have run out of money and are borrowing, raising taxes, or cutting benefits to pay claimants.
Link to Barron's interview with independent analyst Ray Dalio: Prepare for deflation, depression, restructuring, and bank nationalization.
Deflationary depression on the way? (Seeking Alpha, Aug 2009)
The Case for Deflation (interview w/Stoneleigh, Oct 2009)
Deflation and you: Acting sensibly (The Automatic Earth, Aug 2010): Real-person-oriented discussion of deflation (the result of everyone being sensible with their money, all at once).
Or inflation via currency deflation? (iTulip/Janszen, Aug 2009)
U.S. 2009: Shades of Argentina 2001? (iTulip/Janszen, June 2009)
The Game (iTulip/Janszen, Oct 2009): As the dollar drops vs. oil, inflation hits sectors subject to energy costs (e.g., food) but not those subject to cheap labor (e.g., clothes from China). Inflation via currency depreciation—another blow vs. deflationists who fear a liquidity trap.
Hyperinflation in the U.S.? Special report from John Williams (Shadow Gov't Stats).
Overview of the housing/credit crisis, and why there is more pain to come (PDF, May 2009)
Nassim Nicholas (The Black Swan) Taleb's 10 Rules for a more resilient financial system.
Taleb's We Still Have the Same Disease: Obama's financial team is not undertaking any significant changes, ignoring "Taleb's 10 Rules."
In fact, Taleb's The Black Swan probably belongs here, as well as in Human Predicament / Choice-Making: Expect the highly improbable, and don't assume business as usual.
Post and discussion about a 4-day work week (The Oil Drum, March 2009).
Why Socialism? Albert Einstein (1949): A thoughtful, thought-provoking article—if you can suppress capitalism's knee-jerk reaction at the sight of the "S" word.