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Current Economic Crisis: Outlook

I'm not sure how regularly I'll update this page, but it includes some ideas about what is coming, or how we might influence what is coming.

The Solution....is the Problem: Excellent, chilling, succinct summary of the debt challenge facing the U.S. in 2009 and beyond (PDF, Sprott Asset Management, mid-2009). Excellent, Sherlockian follow-up to in Dec 09: Is it all a Ponzi Scheme?

The Trillion-Dollar Gap: Underfunded pensions in the U.S. (Pew Center on the States, Feb 2010): This is the executive summary of a downloadable 65-page PDF that has the full details. No, I don't expect my pension to "always be there."4

How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America: Unflinching analysis of jobs, people, and social legacies of the Great Recession: "a slowly sinking generation; a remorseless assault on the identity of many men; the dissolution of families and the collapse of neighborhoods; a thinning veneer of national amity." (The Atlantic, March 2010)

Dismantling the Temple: This clear, dispassionate article explains why we should abolish the Federal Reserve Bank, or at least greatly reduce its powers (Greider, The Nation, Aug 2009).

Well-written, thoughtful analyses of economics and petroleum by Dave Cohen.
The Decline of the Empire—Now What? Grim, documented analysis (Nov 2009) of finance's stranglehold on the U.S., and the unavoidable outcome of their rotten-to-the-core actions.
The Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy: Debt, demographics, and U.S. medical costs.
Aftermath of the Great Recession, part 1 and part 2: Summaries and bleak projection of the global economy, Sept 2009; part 2 focuses on China (Peak Watch)

Gesture from the invisible hand: Fossil fuels, money, financial investments, and crisis (John Michael Greer, Nov 2009)

State of the Union's Finances: A Citizen's Guide: From the non-profit Peterson Foundation, headed by ex-U.S. Comptroller David Walker. Good graphs, readable text; March 2009, but data only through the end of 2008.

Link to Barron's interview with independent analyst Ray Dalio: Prepare for deflation, depression, restructuring, and bank nationalization.

Death of the Soul of Capitalism: Twenty reasons American capitalism has lost its soul; bleak prospects for the future (from MarketWatch Oct 2009).

Mish's Unemployment Projections Through 2020: Mike Shedlock carefully accounts for factors that influence U.S. unemployment; even with generous assumptions, U-3 remains over 10% until 2015 (Nov 2009).

ProPublica's scorecard of state unemployment insurance funds: As of 1/31/10, 26 states have run out of money and are borrowing, raising taxes, or cutting benefits to pay claimants.

Deflationary depression on the way? (Seeking Alpha, Aug 2009)
The Case for Deflation (interview w/Stoneleigh, Oct 2009)

Or inflation via currency deflation? (iTulip/Janszen, Aug 2009)
U.S. 2009: Shades of Argentina 2001? (iTulip/Janszen, June 2009)
The Game (iTulip/Janszen, Oct 2009): As the dollar drops vs. oil, inflation hits sectors subject to energy costs (e.g., food) but not those subject to cheap labor (e.g., clothes from China). Inflation via currency depreciation—another blow vs. deflationists who fear a liquidity trap.

Hyperinflation in the U.S.? Special report from John Williams (Shadow Gov't Stats).

Overview of the housing/credit crisis, and why there is more pain to come (PDF, May 2009)

Nassim Nicholas (The Black Swan) Taleb's 10 Rules for a more resilient financial system.
Taleb's We Still Have the Same Disease: Obama's financial team is not undertaking any significant changes, ignoring "Taleb's 10 Rules."

In fact, Taleb's The Black Swan probably belongs here, as well as in Human Predicament / Choice-Making: Expect the highly improbable, and don't assume business as usual.

How to Build a Lifeboat: Advice from The Automatic Earth (Stoneleigh) about financial and lifetyle preparation for economic collapse.

Post and discussion about a 4-day work week (The Oil Drum, March 2009).

Why Socialism? Albert Einstein (1949): A thoughtful, thought-provoking article—if you can suppress capitalism's knee-jerk reaction at the sight of the "S" word.

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