Possible Futures: The Fate of Earlier Societies
What caused earlier societies to collapse? What did the collapse feel like for individuals? How are our findings pertinent to modern industrial civilization?
Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988): Scholarly text that reviews proposed explanations of more or less all major collapses of earlier societies; he concludes that energy resources are the chief culprit. Somewhat dry academic style, but
recommended.
Complexity, Problem Solving, and Complex Societies: Tainter's 1996 article that summarizes most of the major, relevant points from his 1988 book.
Human Resource Use: Timing and Implications for Sustainability: Transcript of a 2009 talk by Tainter (posted at The Oil Drum, Sept 2009).
Jared Diamond, Collapse (2005): Dense but readable analysis of factors that have contributed to past societal collapses;
he weights environmental factors more heavily than Tainter does. [Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel (2003) is worth all
the praise it received, and is easier to read than Collapse—though it doesn't deal directly with climate change or energy.]
Meditations on Collapse, Richard Heinberg (Jan 2005): Review of Diamond's Collapse, and thoughtful discussion of our current predicament in that light.
Peak Civilization: The Fall of the Roman Empire: Post (Ugo Bardi) and discussion on The Oil Drum (July 2009) about Rome and modern complex society.
Dmitry Orlov, Reinventing Collapse (2008): Chilling, but darkly comic, comparison of events leading up to and following the collapse of the USSR (Orlov's homeland) with the current situation and likely unfolding of a collapse in the U.S.
The New Map, Jeff Vail (2006): Provocative, well-documented piece that anticipates the decline of modern nation-states in the near future, with "government" by a "state" replaced with more local power structures (his "rhizome model"). Recommended.
Empire Falls, Niall Ferguson (Dec 2008): Wide-ranging article in Vanity Fair charts troubles facing the U.S. and draws conclusion that collapse of U.S. "empire" is closer than we think.
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster (1909): Fictional collapse of a future human civilization that has become totally dependent on its technology.